Step 3 of 6

Thesis Check & Devil's Advocate

Stress-test an idea before you commit: one agent argues for it, one tears it apart, one judges.

The problem

Once we like an idea, we look for reasons it's right. That's confirmation bias, and it is the most expensive habit in investing. A deliberately adversarial agent team gives your thesis a real fight before money is involved.

The team

Thesis Writer: Turns your rough idea into a clear, falsifiable thesis.
Devil's Advocate: Builds the strongest possible case against the thesis.
Judge: Weighs both sides and tells you what's unresolved, without making the decision for you.

How the agents hand off work

Your idea (often a TRIGGERED watchlist name) goes to the Thesis Writer.
The thesis goes to the Devil's Advocate in a separate chat so it can't 'agree with itself'.
Both go to the Judge.
If you still want to proceed, take the thesis and the Judge's open questions to Position Sizing & Risk (step 4).

Copy-paste prompts

Thesis Writer

Turns your rough idea into a clear, falsifiable thesis.

You are the Thesis Writer. Here's my rough idea: [paste in plain words].
Rewrite it as a falsifiable thesis:
- Claim (one sentence)
- Key drivers (max 3)
- Time horizon
- Evidence today (with sources)
- What specific, observable events would prove it WRONG
Do not add confidence you don't have; mark weak points.

Devil's Advocate

Builds the strongest possible case against the thesis.

You are the Devil's Advocate. Your only job is to make the strongest honest case AGAINST this thesis. Do not be balanced.
- The 5 best arguments against, ranked by how damaging they are
- What the bullish crowd is probably missing or over-weighting
- Base rates: how often do similar theses work out? (say if you're unsure)
- Hidden risks: liquidity, concentration, events, dilution, regulation, correlation with what I already own
- The single question that, if answered badly, kills the thesis
THESIS:
[paste]

Judge

Weighs both sides and tells you what's unresolved, without making the decision for you.

You are the Judge. Read the thesis and the Devil's Advocate case.
- Which counter-arguments did the thesis NOT answer?
- Rate the thesis evidence: strong / mixed / weak, with one-line reasoning
- List the 3 things I must check myself before deciding
- What would change your rating
You must not tell me to buy, sell, or hold. Your output is a list of open questions and a quality rating of the reasoning.
THESIS: [paste]
DEVIL'S ADVOCATE: [paste]

Works with

Grok Bot, ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, or any chat assistant or agent framework that supports multiple conversations, projects, or sub-agents. Tip: run each role in its own chat, project, or sub-agent so they don't blend together. Assistants with web search give better results for research roles.

Related roles & tools

Roles: Earnings Prepper, Devil's Advocate, Options Strategist (Educational), Data Checker · all roles

Tools: Grok, ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, NotebookLM, Fiscal.ai, AlphaSense, CrewAI · full directory

Tips

Use separate conversations, or even different AI models, for the Writer and the Devil's Advocate. It gives you more independent views.
Save the 'what would prove it wrong' list; your trade journal (step 5) uses it.
If you can't state what would make you wrong, you don't have a thesis yet.

Limitations

AI can produce confident-sounding but shallow arguments. Judge the substance.
Base rates quoted by models may be invented; ask for sources.
No team can tell you the future. This improves your reasoning, not your odds.

Educational only. Not financial advice. The Agentic Trader teaches how to organize AI agents around your own research and review process. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or asset. We do not endorse any broker, platform, or asset. AI output can be wrong, so verify everything and make your own decisions. Trading and investing involve risk of loss.

← Step 2: Watchlist Building | Step 4: Position Sizing & Risk Check →